First we fear it, then we are mad when it isn’t perfect

Self-driving cars seem like they are just around the corner, and one of the benefits they hope to offer is more safety. Depending on who you ask, this might be a huge boon to the world, or an impossible dream, or the beginning of the AI apocalypse. There is almost always fear about new technology, but there is also a predictable path for successful innovations: First we fear it, then we overestimate the benefits, then rich people get it, then everyone gets it, and finally we take it for granted and start complaining that it isn’t better.

Today, autonomous vehicles are in the “fear and overestimate” stage. Another life-saving automobile technology, airbags, were a new thing when I was young, but are now in the “take it for granted” stage. An article in the WSJ (2015-09-02, print edition: “Fewer Air-Bag Replacements Needed”, section B2) had a picture with a caption that caught my eye. “Faulty Takata air-bag inflaters have been linked to eight deaths world-wide.” The article is not completely clear, but it seems like those deaths are from the air-bag failing to inflate when required.

We have some work to do to get there, but soon enough, today’s fears about allowing AI into our cars will be replaced with outrage that some manufacturer’s AI didn’t avoid enough accidents.

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